How accurate are Apptopia's estimations?

Our download and revenue estimations for Google Play and the iOS App Store are regarded as some of the most accurate in the industry.


Our download estimations range from 70 - 90% accurate, on average.


Our revenue estimations range from 65 - 80% accurate, on average.

  • Paid Downloads: 70 - 90% accurate
  • In-App Purchase: 70 - 80% accurate
  • Advertising: 65 - 70% accurate

Important Note

  • Our numbers are averages that take into account both ranked apps and unranked apps. 
  • We consistently perform much better (i.e. higher in our accuracy range) with higher ranked apps.  Lower ranked apps tend to be dramatically more volatile and difficult to predict.


As of December 2016, we have enhanced our iOS models for Downloads, In-App Purchase Revenue, Daily Active Users and Monthly Active users to increase accuracy by 2.2x over previous models. We are now working on enhancing the Google Play models.

*All accuracy benchmarks updated as of December 2016

We tirelessly test and benchmark our estimations against real data we have access to, and we will continue to update the accuracy numbers here.